In spite of a trend that normally sees analysts make throwaway predictions and forecasts based on previous trends and market share, the latest word from financial management company Merrill Lynch is that it will actually be the Xbox 360 that will lead the next-gen battle, not the PS3.
Previously, all analyst predictions regarding the upcoming console war have been fairly safe bets, with the numerous companies that have released ‘results’ over the past year basically pointing to a PS3 lead, with the 360 running second and Wii in third – the exact same result as the last-gen battle.
Still, thanks to a combination of important factors – the most notable being an expected dominance for 360 in the US market says Merrill Lynch – it is now expected that the Xbox 360 will achieve a 39 per cent worldwide market share by 2011, with PS3 achieving 34 per cent and Nintendo’s Wii bagging 27 per cent.
“The winner in the next-generation console battle is likely to be the Xbox 360,” claims Yoshiyuki Kinoshita, spokesperson for Merrill Lynch, who then went on to claim that the console’s US dominance could reach as much as 50 per cent.
However, despite an expected US lead that will tip worldwide sales in Microsoft’s favour, Kinoshita went on to predict that Sony would keep 57 per cent of the Japanese audience as the Xbox 360 would continue to struggle in this region.
Kinoshita concluded that this would mark the “end of any common global dominant platform”.
Cheers for that Merrill Lynch. We look forward to your updated guesswork in about six months time when some unforeseen event and change in tides makes you once again rethink your predictions.
